Prices Continue to Firm as Projected Supply Remains Tight

Yesterday’s release of the June Cold Storage Holdings hinted at a slight increase in consumption during the past month.  Unlike May where inventories were 12.1% higher than May of 2023, the June numbers were only 7.9% higher than a year ago (19.5% below the record June inventory of 2020).  Based on currently available information, it would appear that the industry is going to carry out approximately 140 million pounds.

Last week, the Texas Pecan Growers Association concluded their annual meeting with their estimate of the 2024 US Crop, estimating a crop of 289 million pounds.   While COMNUEZ will not come out with their estimate of the Mexican crop until mid-to-late August, early reports of water shortages, and less than ideal growing conditions, would seem to indicate a crop of less than 300 million pounds.  Sources within Mexico are projecting a crop of 270 to 280 million pounds.  As such, should the above numbers hold up, the industry can expect a supply situation similar to last year.

As supplies of both uncommitted inshell and kernels continue to dwindle, those buyers who did not cover all of their needs are finding a much firmer market.  Inshell prices have risen 20% since the first of the year.  While kernel prices continue to lag, they too have moved higher particularly for Jr Mammoth Halves and Medium Pieces.  With EU and Middle Eastern buyers starting to re-enter the market, many trying to make early bookings on new crop, this trend should continue.