A Reorganized NPSA Releases their 2024 US Pecan Crop Forecast

Yesterday, the National Pecan Sheller’s Association concluded their abbreviated annual meeting with their estimate of the US Pecan Crop, as well as their view of the overall supply situation.  Based on a survey of their members, they are projecting a 2024 crop of 332.5 million pounds.  Averaging the Tri-State and Texas Pecan Grower estimates with that of the NPSA (305.5, 289 and 332.5 million pounds respectively), the industry is looking at a crop of approximately 309 million pounds (inshell basis). 

Also, last week, COMNEUZ concluded their annual meeting with an estimate of the 2024 Mexican crop of 285.7 million pounds, down about 8.5% from a year earlier (please note that the attached NPSA presentation shows an INC 2023 crop figure for Mexico of 299.8 million pounds instead of the final 312 million). Overall, the industry can expect a supply situation similar to that of a year ago. 

As for the NPSA, it is going through significant changes, the largest of which was a change in the Management Organization and Executive Director.  After 37 years, the NPSA decided to part ways with the Kellen Company out of Atlanta, GA and contracted with the Texas Pecan Growers Association to handle the organization’s management needs.  Blair Krebs has assumed the role of Executive Director, and along with her excellent staff, did a fantastic job of putting the meeting together on very short notice (they officially assumed the management role on July 1^st).  While the formal meetings were condensed, they were full of valuable information. 

There was also another major change.  To continue its efforts to be transparent and inclusive, the organization decided to redefine the regions it serves.  In the past, there was an East and West region, each represented on the board by 5 shellers.   The Western region included Mexico and had one Mexican Sheller on the Board.  The organization now has three regions, East, West and Mexico, each of which will be represented on the board by four Shellers.  New Board Members were elected to each region with Mexico now being represented by La Nogalera, Rancho Pecana, Humphrey Pecan and Galeana Pecan Companies.  This is a huge step forward for both the organization and the industry. 

Finally, the Board discussed several changes to the new Standards and Regulations relative to both inshell and shelled pecans.  This is being done to address concerns from several shellers regarding the application and evaluation of Fancy Grade Pecans. A committee was formed to make the discussed changes and present them to both the NPSA and APC by the end of October.  Since the definition of Fancy Grade Pecans will be changed, the Board also decided to modify the moisture requirements.  Going forward, instead of evaluating moisture based on a percentage figure of moisture content, the committee will move to a measure of water activity.  The committee will also be working closely with the APC and USDA to clarify the color variations inherent in pecans.  More changes are under consideration, including the organization’s dues structure. Hopefully, those two or three shellers who did not renew their membership will reconsider that decision. 

Finally, I have also attached a copy of the January 2023 Preliminary Crop Report.  This is one of the two reports that the APC decided not to fund because its representatives felt that, for a cost of less than $200,000, the information it contained was not worth the cost.  I’ll let you be the judge.

(To download copies of the NPSA presentation and the January 2023 Preliminary Crop Report, go to the Market Conditions section of the Pecan Crop Statistics drop down)