Pecan Market Update
March 22, 2012
Shortly after the release of my March 16, 2012, Pecan Market Update, it was brought to my attention that there was an error in my calculations relative to Total Supply. After correcting the error, the supply situation shapes up as follows:
| 2010 Carryout | 95,107,000 |
| 2011 US Crop (USDA estimate) | 271,400,000 |
| 2011 Net Imports from Mexico (est.) | 120,000,000 |
| Total Supply | 486,507,000 |
| Less 2012 Net Consumption (est.) | 380,000,000 |
| 2011 Carryout (est.) | 106,507,000 |
I apologize for any confusion.
As for the current market, the USDA Cold Storage figures released yesterday indicate a continued decline in consumption. Last year overall consumption dropped over ten percent as the industry saw prices climb to record highs last summer. While it is far too early to make any projections, should the trend continue, consumption could fall another four to five percent before the fall harvest.
In the meantime, while current shipments to China have slowed in anticipation of the South African harvest and an abundance of inshell pecans still in the supply chain, through January, China had already imported about four million pounds more than they had purchased all of last year. Last year, Chinese imports dropped from a 2009 high of 80.4 million pounds (inshell basis) to 43.9 million pounds. Between August 1, 2011, and January 31, 2012, China has imported 48.5 million pounds. At the moment, and depending on the size of the South African crop, China will probably import another 12 to 15 million pounds before August 1st.
As usual, should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me at 630-377-2628.
