The Texas Pecan Growers Association released their 2010 Pecan Crop Estimate last week projecting a crop of 292 million pounds (inshell basis).  If correct, the 2010 'off-year' crop would be the largest ever and would be larger than the 2009 'on-year' crop.  A month ago the Tri-State Growers surprised many within the industry when they projected a 2010 crop of 274 million pounds so the latest estimate was great news for an industry that had faced the possibility of having to try to market $6.00/lb Pecans. The latest figure, if correct, would not eliminate the current shortage but would go a long way to preventing higher prices later this fall and into the 2011 contracting season.  Based on current estimates, this is how the supply situation shapes up:

                        2009 Carry-out (est.)                      82,000,000
                        2010 US Crop (est.)                      292,000,000
                        2010 Mexican imports (est.)         120,000,000
                        2010 Total Supply (est.)               494,000,000

With consumption currently estimated to be approximately 470 million pounds, the industry is still short about 35 million pounds.  This figure could be even higher if the USDA is forced to correct their 2009 Final Crop estimate due to what could be a significant error in the number they reported for Georgia.  Based on data from the Georgia Pecan Commission which overseas the State's Pecan Marketing Order, the Georgia crop was at least 95 milliion pounds; 5 million pounds more than the final USDA estimate. The actual figure is probably ten to twenty million pounds higher as the Commission does not report inshell produced on 'yard trees' or in orchards smaller than 30 acres.  In either case, it should be remembered that a lot can happen over the next three months especially during a summer in which the US Weather Service has projected higher than normal hurricane activity.