USDA NASS Releases Only 2024 US Pecan Crop Estimate
October 14, 2024
This past Friday, October 11, 2024, the USDA NASS released their first, and only, estimate of the 2024 US Pecan Crop. Based on their survey, which was concluded after Hurricane Helene marched through Georgia, they are projecting a crop of only 270.9 million pounds (inshell basis), down 11.7% from last year. Due to the hurricane, the USDA added this ‘Special Note’ to their release:
“Survey work for the field crop and pecan forecasts in this report occurred primarily from September 28 to October 7. Although much of the survey work occurred after the most severe weather had subsided, the full impact of the storm may not be reflected until future reports.”
Unfortunately, due to the APC’s failure to fund a December estimate, or a January preliminary crop production report, there will be no ‘future reports’ until the final crop figures are published in May of 2025. While the APC has decided to fund an independent damage surgery by Land IQ, the damage figure will not reflect what the actual size of the Georgia crop was before the storm, or what it is now. It will only present a picture of the acres that were damaged. To come up with an estimated damage estimate, in inshell pounds, the industry will have to rely on the same USDA production data that they did not want to fund. This is simply another example of why many outside of the pecan industry refer to it as ‘The Wild West.’
Based on currently available information, this is how the US supply situation shapes up:
|
|
2023 Crop Year |
2024 Crop Year (est.) |
|
Carry-In |
124,454,000 |
145,000,000 |
|
US Crop |
306,750,000 |
270,900,000 |
|
Mexican Imports |
247,785,000 |
235,000,000 |
|
Total Supply |
678,989,000 |
650,900,000 |
*NOTE: The Mexican imports figure is based on USDA FAS data and does not reflect US inshell exports to Mexico that are shelled and returned to the US in the form of kernels.
While shortages of 2023 inshell stocks, as well as severe shortages of various sizes of kernels, had already forced the industry to raise prices, Friday’s USDA release can be expected to accelerate those increases. For those growers, and sheller’s, who are savvy enough to understand the opportunity before them, this could be the first profitable year for the industry in a very long time.
