December 16, 2009
This past Friday, as expected, the USDA reduced their estimate of the 2009 Pecan Crop to 301.2 million pounds (inshell basis) from their previous estimate of 309.2 million pounds. Based on current projections, this is how the supply situation shapes up:
October 27, 2009
October 12, 2009
The USDA released the first of their 2009 Pecan Crop estimates this past Friday estimating the crop to be 309.2 million pounds (inshell basis). If this figure is correct, when one combines it with an estimated 2008 carryout of 85 million pounds and the140 million pounds of Mexican inshell that is expected to cross the border, total supply can be expected to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 534 million pounds. With consumption currently running between 415 and 435 million pounds, this will leave approximately 110 million pounds to carry into the 2010 'off-year' crop. For a significant part of the current crop year, the industry has experienced a shortage of Mammoth, Jr.
September 15, 2009
The National Pecan Sheller's Association completed their semi-annual meeting this past weekend with their estimate of the 2009 Pecan Crop. Based on their member estimates, they expect the 2009 US Pecan crop to be around 347 million pounds (inshell basis). Should the crop come in as they project, the supply situation could shape up as follows (figures are millions of pounds inshell):
July 16, 2009
July 14, 2009
Today the Texas Pecan Growers concluded their annual meeting with their estimate of the 2009 Pecan Crop. As usual, estimates were provided by both Kenneth Pape and Kyle Brookshier. Based on their figures, the supply situation could shape up as follows:
June 23, 2009
This past Friday, June 19, 2009, the Tri-State (Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas) Pecan Producer's Association concluded their annual meeting with the first crop estimate of the season. While it is still very early in the growing cycle, and while the estimates provided for several of the states could be debated, the overall estimate of 299 million pounds is certainly in line with what many within the industry expected to see. When one considers the larger than average size of the previous two crops, the potential damage caused by the April freeze in East Texas and the copious amounts of rain that have fallen in the Southeast, it is hard to argue with the current estimate. As stated in the April Pecan Crop Update, since 1990, the average 'on-year' crop has been approximately 329 mi
While there was a large inshell dissappearance in March, don't expect prices to go through the roof.
April 24, 2009
Based on the March Cold Storage holdings, it would appear that consumption is running well ahead of expectations. The March release showed an overall decline in the Cold Storage figures of over 19 million pounds (inshell basis), well ahead of historical figures for the same period.
January 23, 2009
The USDA released their final estimate for the 2008 Pecan crop today. Based on currently available information, the total supply for
2008/2009 shapes up as follows:
|2008 Carry in (44% conversion rate)||186,570,000|
|2008 US Crop (estimate)||191,080,000|
|2007 Mexican Imports (estimate**)||100,000,000|
|2008/2009 Total Supply (estimate)||477,650,000|
** The Mexican Import figure is estimated based on FAS Mexico import data and does not take into account any double counting of US crop sent to Mexico for shelling then returned for processing.