December 23, 2013
While it is still too early to draw any definitive projections for the 2014 marketing year, when combined with the recently released October export figures, today’s release of the November Cold Storage holdings should put to bed any concerns about consumption. Meat imports from Mexico are up dramatically, US consumption is up as are meat exports. While the world-wide increase in meat exports was minimal, it is still up over last year’s record pace. Considering the price of almonds, walnuts and pistachios, even with the reduction in Chinese inshell purchases, the pecan industry appears to be headed for another record year of consumption.
November 27, 2013
Last Friday’s revised September 30, 2013 Cold Storage figures showed a carryout of 175 million pounds (inshell basis). While this is slightly lower than last month’s figures, when added to recent US and Mexican crop projections, there should still be more than enough pecans to handle current consumption.
Contrary to a recent New York Times article claiming that higher prices and tighter supplies would keep most consumers from making pecan pies for Thanksgiving, nothing could be further from the truth. Consumption is running at a record pace. Ninety-six million pounds (inshell basis) were shipped in the months of September and October alone and worldwide consumption continues to be strong.
October 31, 2013
Today’s delayed release of the September USDA Cold Storage holdings shows an industry inventory just shy of 181.5 million pounds (inshell basis). When added to the US Crop projections, as well as what is expected to come in from Mexico, the 2013 supply situation shapes up as follows:
2012 Carry Out (estimate) 181,485,280
2013 US Crop (Average of Sheller/Grower estimates) 214,233,000
2013 Mexican Imports (estimate)* 135,000,000
2013 Total Supply (estimate) 530,718,280
Lower Pecan Prices in 2012/2013 Led to a Significant Increase in Consumption. Where does the Industry Go From Here?
October 02, 2013
The final 2012 export figures were published last month by the USDA Foreign Ag Statistics Service (FAS) and, as expected, exports were up dramatically. Overall exports climbed from 150.64 million pounds (inshell basis) to 200.62 million pounds; a new record. While exports to China accounted for 34.4 million pounds of the increase, exports to all of the other major pecan importing countries were up. Export shipments of shelled meats continued to rebound; up approximately 11%.
August 22, 2013
While the 2012 crop year export/import data will not be published by the Foreign Ag Statistics Service (FAS) until early next month, Customs data reflects another increase in pecan imports from Mexico. Between August 1, 2012 and July 31, 2013, the US imported 152.39 million pounds (inshell basis) from Mexico, an increase of approximately 3.85 million pounds over the prior year. Assuming that the 2012 crop was approximately 375 million pounds, consumption is currently running over 440 million pounds, an increase of approximately 11.4% over the same period last year.
August 09, 2013
While the Almond Board's release of the July Position Report may not have been good news for Almond buyers, it was definately good news for the Pecan industry. Shipments continue to surpass levels of a year ago and with the 2013 Almond crop projected to be approximately 185 million pounds less than last year, the Pecan industry has been given a rare opportunity to supply product to customers not normally available to them. When one considers that the 2013 Walnut crop is also projected to be smaller than last year and that shelled Walnuts continue to sell at or near record levels, the Pecan industry stands to see significant gains in consumption across
July 17, 2013
Last week’s release by the Foreign Ag Statistic Service (FAS) of the May export figures contained some very encouraging news. While inshell shipments to China have temporarily ground to a halt, shipments of shelled Pecan meats continue to improve. May meat shipments were up 10% over April and 4.8% over the same period last year. Further, this trend was true for Canada, Holland, Mexico and the UK; the four largest Pecan importing countries. This continues a trend that started several months ago, and with meat prices continuing to be very competitive relative to Almonds, Walnuts and Pistachios, should continue well into the Fall. Based on current 2013 crop projections, and barring a natural disaster, the trend should continue well into next year.
June 21, 2013
Today’s USDA Cold Storage report shows an industry inventory just shy of 300 million pounds (inshell basis). Based on historical data, and assuming that consumption continues at or near its current pace, the industry could carry out as much as 205.7 million pounds of product into the 2013 crop. Combining the projected carry out with the Tri-State Pecan Growers 2013 crop estimate of 222 million pounds (released earlier today), the 2013 supply situation could shape up as follows:
2012 Carry Out (estimate) 205,700,000
2013 US Crop (Tri-State estimate) 222,000,000
2013 Mexican Imports (estimate) 130,000,000
June 19, 2013
Over the past 100 years, nothing has had a greater impact on the Pecan industry than the emergence of China as a trading partner. Since 2002, no country, no company, no natural event, no innovation has changed the Pecan industry more that China. In the process, Growers have seen the value of their harvest more than double thereby allowing them to improve their orchards, plant more trees, and for the first time, become an active participant in the marketing of their product. On the other side of the spectrum, Sheller’s have had to adjust their buying strategies in the face of ever increasing prices and develop new ways of financing their inventory purchases all the while trying to continue to service an ingredient market in which the average consumer has seen their costs jump 100%.
May 15, 2013
Based on the latest USDA FAS Import and Export figures, as well as the March Cold Storage holdings, one could easily make the argument that the 2012 Pecan Crop was at least 360 million pounds (inshell basis). Unfortunately, due to the recent decision by the USDA to cancel all future crop production reports, this will be a matter of debate for years to come. However, based on the figures we do know (last year’s crop figure, FAS & Customs Import figures, 2012 Carryout, etc.), it would be impossible to be handling the current export shipments, as well as a robust US Domestic market, if the crop was only the 302.8 million pounds the USDA projected in their January Preliminary Production Report. With 2012/2013 Mexican imports down considerably from last year, and US exports u
April 17, 2013
There were no surprises in last week’s release of the February import/export figures by the Foreign Ag Statistics Service. Based on the FAS figures, and as expected, exports to China set a new record. Between August 1, 2012 and February 28, 2013, China imported almost 89 million pounds (inshell basis) of pecans. Within that figure, exports to Vietnam and China were both down slightly but Hong Kong more than made up the difference. Overall exports to China are up 52% over 2012 and now account for almost 60% of all pecan exports.
March 13, 2013
Last week’s release of the January export figures contained both good and bad news. The good news; exports continue to be up dramatically over the same period last year. The bad news; exports continue to be up dramatically over the same period last year. Confused? On the surface, the USDA Foreign Ag Statistics Service (FAS) data for the export year beginning August 1, 2012, shows overall exports up approximately thirty-seven percent. Good news for an industry that watched overall consumption drop ten percent over the past two years. What’s more, if you are a grower who was able to produce a product that China wanted, the report contained a lot of good news. Exports to China (including China, Hong Kong and Vietnam) are continuing at a record pace.
February 13, 2013
This past Thursday the National Pecan Sheller’s Association (NPSA) released their estimate of the 2012 Pecan Crop projecting a crop of 316 million pounds (inshell basis). While this is approximately 14 million pounds more than the January USDA estimate of 302.8 million pounds, due to the significant increase in consumption currently being experienced by the industry, the apparent increase should have little or no impact on current market prices. If the NPSA figure is correct, and barring any natural disasters, the supply situation shapes up as follows:
January 25, 2013
The USDA released their final 2012 crop estimate today lowering their October 2012 projection to 302.8 million pounds (inshell basis). Assuming that this figure is correct, and barring any natural disasters, the supply situation shapes up as follows: