USDA Reduces 2022 Crop Estimate

This past Friday the USDA released their December estimate of the 2022 Pecan Crop (Crop Production Report).  As expected, they reduced the projection from their October estimate of 290.5 million pounds (inshell basis) to 280 million. Based on currently available information, the supply situation shapes up as follows:

Note: Total supply indicates product available to US marketers and does not include pecans from other pecan producing countries. 2022 Mexican Import figures are NFF estimates based on currently available USDA NASS & FAS data. 

There is an old adage that ‘short crops only get shorter.’  So far, all currently available information would seem to bear that out.  Imports are down 28%, one major Mexican grower group is projecting that the Mexican crop could be as much as 20% smaller than forecast, the 2021 crop year carry-out was the lowest since 2016,  shellers are having to cut product to satisfy piece orders, production costs have increased dramatically, as have financing and transportation costs, and I could go on.  However, current market levels are not reflecting any of this.  Why?  Because several major shellers continue to be afraid of ‘he who shall not be named.’  Like lemmings, faced with a cheap quote, they just could not help themselves and decided to jump over the cliff and sell their product below the cost of production completely ignoring the fact that supply levels are the lowest since 2015. As stated in my last newsletter, the industry never has been very good at learning from their prior mistakes.  Any bets on which sheller will be the next to exit the industry?