Almond Market Update - Shipments continue at record levels

February 07, 2008

The Almond market has continued to be slow and soft for the past month with prices drifting down about $0.10/lb.  Today the Almond Board released its Position Report showing record January shipments of 94 million lbs, 14% more than last January.  Year to date shipments are also 14% ahead of a year ago and right on schedule to leave a carryout of about 230 million lbs, a volume considered necessary to avoid crop year transition shortages as have been experienced in the recent past.  Crop deliveries are up to 1.357 billion lbs.  Buyers have been slow to cover future almond needs due to the declining market in hopes of gaining further discounts as prices weaken.  Buyers may also be responding to general financial market concerns and not buying too far ahead.  Industry attention is now focused on the bloom which will dictate future pricing.  Shipment figures indicate that demand is not slowing down and will probably continue at record levels.  Although a good bloom could result in lower prices, there appears to be more upside potential at today's moderate prices, especially when compared with other tree nuts (all of which are higher).  For buyers with an open position, this is probably a good time to cover some of your future needs.