Pecan Crop Update

September 15, 2009

The National Pecan Sheller's Association completed their semi-annual meeting this past weekend with their estimate of the 2009 Pecan Crop.  Based on their member estimates, they expect the 2009 US Pecan crop to be around 347 million pounds (inshell basis).  Should the crop come in as they project, the supply situation could shape up as follows (figures are millions of pounds inshell):


2008 Carry in (est.) 85,000
2009 US Crop (est.) 347,000
2009 Mexican Crop (est. 120,000
TOTAL SUPPLY (est.) 552,000

Based on current USDA Cold Storage Holdings and FAS export figures, it would appear that consumption is running between 415 and 435 million pounds.   Assuming consumption remains at or near current levels, this would leave a 2009 carryover in September 2010 of approximately 127 million pounds; a good 'carry in' going into an 'off-year' crop.  However, with China continuing to buy only the biggest and best product from the crop,* combined with the very large crop projected to be in the Southwest and Old Mexico, the industry will probably continue to see shortages of Mammoth, Jr. Mammoth and Jumbo Pecan Halves as well as Extra Large and Large Pecan Pieces.  Further, due to the current over supply of many of the smaller piece sizes, price spreads between halves and pieces could continue to be at record levels.

*Note: This past year China purchased approximately 53 million pounds, on an inshell basis, or 27% of the US Crop