USDA 2011 Objective Almond Crop Estimate

July 06, 2011

The USDA released their 2011 Objective Almond Crop Estimate today projecting a 1.95 billion pound crop (kernel basis) based on 750,000 producing acres. This figure is 11% ( 200 million pounds) higher than the May Subjective Estimate and 19% higher than last year's crop. While many within the industry felt that the May estimate was on the low side, the 1.95 billion pound figure was a bit of a surprise. While it will take a few days for the market to digest the new information, overseas markets have already started to exert some downward pressure on prices. However, even with the larger than expected figure, it does not change the fact that the crop is running several weeks late and could result in a harvest that starts even later than last year's did. Regardless of where the market settles out, Almonds will continue to provide the best value, dollar-for-dollar, of all the tree nuts.