USDA Releases Final 2013 Pecan Crop Figures

July 17, 2014


The USDA published the long awaited, much anticipated, 2013 final crop figure.  They estimated the 2013 pecan crop to be 266.3 million pounds (inshell basis). While earlier industry estimates had put the crop as low as 170 million pounds, based on Customs and Foreign Ag Statistics Data published over the past six months, it had become obvious that the crop had to be significantly larger.  While it will be several months before we have a final 2013 carry out figure, based on today’s release, 2013 total supply shaped up as follows:

                                                Component                             Quantity

                                    2012 Carry-Out                                      175,003,000

                                    2013 US Crop (USDA Final)                   266,330,000

                                    2013 Mexican Imports (Estimate)        163,000,000

                                    2013 Total Supply (Estimate)               604,333,000

                                    2013 Carry-Out (Estimate)                   170,000,000

                                    2013 Consumption* (Estimate)           434,333,000

            *Note: This figure does not include Australian or South African production nor does it include Mexican shipments to China or Mexican pecans consumed in Mexico.

This past Tuesday the Texas Pecan Growers concluded their annual meeting with their estimate of the 2014 pecan crop.  Based on their membership, they project a 2014 crop of 264 million pounds (inshell basis).  This is only slightly higher than the Tri-State Grower estimate of 256 million pounds. The only differences between the two estimates were the figures used for Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas.  The Tri-State Growers estimated the Georgia, Oklahoma and Texas at 65 million pounds, 15 million pounds and 65 million pounds respectively while the Texas Growers put the three at 82 million pounds, 9 million pounds and 63 million pounds.  The figures for the other states were identical.  As stated in my June report, should the crop come in as currently projected by either group, there are enough pecans to handle projected consumption, including any additional purchases by China.

As usual, should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me at 630-879-5200.