For Second Year In-a-Row, Mexico Outpaces the US in Pecan Production

August 09, 2016

For the second year in a row, Mexican pecan production outpaced the US.  Based on recently released crop figures, Mexico produced a record 2015 pecan crop; 270,535.4 million pounds, an increase of almost 400,000 lbs over the 2014 record crop. Further, based on July 31, 2016 trade figures, Mexico also set a new record for exports to the US shipping almost 207 million pounds (inshell basis) across the border.  Even when one takes into consideration the double counting of US inshell processed in Mexico, a record number of pecans came across the border.

June FAS export figures continue to show overall pecan exports down 13.2%.  However, all of the downturn can be attributed to reduced inshell shipments to China.  Based on current figures, 2015 Chinese inshell purchases could be the lowest since 2010.

On a brighter note, shipments of shelled pecans continue to be slightly ahead of last year’s record pace.  Even in China, where inshell shipments are off almost 34%, meat shipments continue to be a pleasant surprise showing a year-to-year increase of over 31%.

Finally, the Texas Pecan Growers closed their annual meeting last month estimating the 2016 crop at 292 million pounds (inshell basis).  Based on currently available data, the 2016/2017 supply situation could shape up as follows:

2016 Carry-In (NFF est.)                       136,000,000

2016 US Crop (TPGA est.)                    292,000,000

Mexican Imports (NFF est.)                  195,000,000

Total (NFF est.)                                     623,000,000*

*Note: 2015 Total Supply – 582.5 million pounds