The National Pecan Sheller's Association Releases It's Revised 2017 Crop Estimate. Department of Commerce Revises Key Pecan Export Data
March 16, 2018
After an extremely successful and productive Mid-Winter Meeting, the National Pecan Sheller’s Association published their estimate of the 2017 pecan crop. Using their estimate, the supply situation shapes-up as follows:
2017 Carry-In 155,128,580
2017 NPSA Estimate 319,200,000
2017 Net Mexican Imports (NFF estimate) 160,000,000
2017 Total (estimate) 634,328,580*
*Note: 2016 Total Supply was approximately 642,047 million pounds.
The number was revised upward from the Association’s September estimate by approximately 20 million pounds based on additional information from Georgia and New Mexico, both of which appear to have produced larger crops than originally estimated.
As you might recall, last July the USDA/FAS, and the Department of Commerce Census Bureau, were asked to check their pecan export data on both China and Mexico as the data published in the GATS System did not appear to be correct. In September, both FAS and Census admitted that six months of data related to US pecan exports to China were incorrect. Last week, the industry was advised that nine months of 2017 export data related to pecan exports to Mexico were also wrong. While the agencies did publish a corrections page, they will not update the GATS monthly data until June. As such, unless you have the page of corrections for both Mexico and China, and the months needing correction, any comparison between 2017 and 2018 using GATS data will be incorrect. I have posted a downloadable copy of the export corrections for Mexico on my website (www.nffonline.com). They can be found on the Pecan Crop Statistics page under ‘Market Conditions.’
Also, during the NPSA meeting, I made a presentation on the 2017 pecan crop, export data, world supply and factors impacting the market. A downloadable pdf of that presentation is also available on my website on the Presentations and Articles page.
Finally, as I mentioned to the participants before I began my presentation to the NPSA, I try to learn something new every day. Whether it’s listening to experts like Dr. Lenny Wells and Dr. George Ray McEachern, the marketing experts at Weber Shandwick, or just paying attention to the news of the day, I am not satisfied unless I’ve learned something that I didn’t know before. Oft times what I’ve learned requires a good sense of humor, especially when you learn something about yourself that you were not aware of. Such was the case yesterday about two hours before I made my presentation. While sitting in the audience listening to Dr. McEachern, I received an email blast to the industry that announced that I was the Co-Founder of a certain pecan cooperative in Texas. With everything I’ve done in my life, somehow I missed that one. Taking a page from something I learned a few years ago from one of my grandchildren, right now I’m LOL!