2018 Pecan Shipments/Committments Bode Well for 2019
October 24, 2019
On Tuesday, the USDA released the September Cold Storage Holdings. Based on their figures, 2018 supply shaped up as follows:
2018 Available Carry-in (USDA minus APC Sept. Commitments) 69,911,915
2018 US Crop (USDA) 242,920,000
2018 Mexican Imports (FAS) 322,218,000
2018 Supply available to US Marketers 635,049,915
Less 2018 Carry-Out (USDA) 182,081,000
2018 Apparent Consumption 452,968,915
While the APC has yet to publish the industry’s ‘committed’ inventory position as of September 30th, using the August 31, 2019 figure of 109,139,497 lbs., actual shipments and commitments were approximately 562,108,412.
Assuming that all of the commitments will get shipped as contracted, 2019 available supply shapes up as follows:
2019 Available Carry-in (USDA minus APC August Commitments) 72,941,503
2019 US Crop (USDA) 281,000,000*
2019 Mexican Imports (NPSA ‘Net’ estimate) 230,000,000
2019 Supply available to US Marketers 583,941,503
*Note: Beginning in Oct 2019, the USDA estimate is based solely on the 5 largest producing states (AZ, GA, NM, OK & TX).
Based on the above, barring any unforeseen natural disasters or an unexpected settlement of the US/China trade dispute, buyers are likely to see another year of competitive pecan prices and increased sales opportunities. Further, should prices of almonds, walnuts and pistachios continue to firm, those increases could positively impact pecan consumption well beyond the current crop year.