Nature's Finest Foods, Ltd.

Specializing in the markteting of tree nuts.
10/22/20

The USDA released the September Cold Storage Holdings today, the final report for the 2019 crop.  While the industry may be entering the fourth year of a depressed market, there was good news in the numbers.  The following is an overview of the supply and consumption situation based on today’s release:

 

2018

2019

2020 (est.)

Carry-In

162,653,000

181,881,000

201,470,000

US Crop

242,930,000

255,600,000

292,000,000

Mexican Imports

322,218,000

300,239,000

300,000,000

Gross Supply

727,801,000

737,720,000

793,470,000

Carry-Out

181,881,000

201,470,000

 

Consumption

545,920,000

536,250,000

 

*Note: The above data assumes a 50% kernel to inshell conversion rate.

At first glance, it might be difficult to see the good news.  However, delving deeper into the numbers, while both domestic consumption and US exports were down for 2019, 1.4% and 1% respectively, the good news is that they were ONLY down 1.4% and 1%.  When one considers that US exports to China were off over 50 million pounds last year due to the trade war, and that worldwide supply increased approximately 60 million pounds over the same period, things could have been significantly worse.  The trade war, while costly, has forced the industry to step-back and rethink how best to move its product.  It has forced the industry to look for new accounts, accounts less likely to be impacted by huge price swings or competition from non-US marketers.  Even though there were almost no shipments to China in September, US marketers shipped 91.3% more pecans than they did in the same month last year.  Most of those shipments involved kernels the bulk of which are being used as ingredients in products that are less likely to be pulled off of store shelves when prices begin to climb. Based on 2019 inshell shipments to China, it is obvious that the US has a product they prefer.  However, if the industry has learned nothing else, hopefully it has learned that it is never prudent to trust 30% of your sales to one customer, particularly one that can shut-off the faucet at the slightest whim.

This website contains only pecan related statistics. For statistical information on other tree nuts, click the appropriate link(s) above.