From the "Hen' House - Available Supply Falls in the Face of Record Consumption

September 02, 2021

Last week, the National Pecan Sheller's Association concluded their first 'in person' meeting in almost 18-months with their estimate of the 2021 crop.  Based on a survey of their memebership, as well as those in attendance, they are predicting a 2021 US crop of 322,925,000 inshell pounds, slightly higher than the 297 million pound estimate from the Texas Pecan Growers meeting.  A downloadable PDF copy of my presentation can be found under the 'Presentations' tab of this web site.  As stated on that page, two numbers have changed since the presentation was made.  The first is the revised US Crop estimate.  The second, COMNUEZ lowered their estimate of the Mexican crop to 254 million pounds. With over 241,000 producing acres, that number seems very low.  However, it is the current figure.  Between the two, total world supply remains almost identical to what is in the slide.  However, if the Mexican crop is as small a currently projected, than the total supply available to US Marketers will be approximately 100 million pounds less than a year ago.