USDA Releases Final 2021 Crop Figure

May 20, 2022

Like the weather, things often change overnight in the pecan industry. Back in January it appeared that the industry’s carryout would be the smallest in ten years.  Consumption was running relatively close to 2021 levels, imports were running ahead of prior year levels and the industry was looking at the first opportunity in three years to make some money.  However, inflation, poor crop reporting out of Mexico, higher prices and the continued logistics issues quickly changed that.  Based on the Cold Storage holdings reported over the last three months, FAS export data and Customs import information, consumption has definitely hit a wall. 

Kernel Exports Soar as Both the Mexican & US Crops Appear Larger Than Originally Forecast

March 30, 2022

While prices remain firm in the face of tighter than expected supplies and a continued appetite for pecans, last week’s release of the February Cold Storage figures, as well as US Customs data relative to Mexican imports, would appear to indicate that both the US and Mexican crops were larger than originally forecast.  While the cold storage figures would seem to indicate that the US Crop was slightly larger than the last USDA estimate of 258 million pounds, it is the import figures that shed the most light on the supply situation. Let me explain.

US Cold Storage Levels Hit 30-Year Low

January 28, 2022

This past Monday, the USDA released the December Cold Storage holdings.  While the figure showed a lower-than-expected inventory position, it should not have come as a surprise. For months, the industry has known that both the US and Mexican crops were considerably smaller.

American Pecan Council Cancels December USDA Pecan Crop Estimate

December 09, 2021

For over twenty years, I have advocated the need for a strong industry marketing order, if for no other reason than to provide the industry with a unified approach to marketing and for the collection and dissemination of reliable data. When the American Pecan Council was formed in 2016, one of the organizations first efforts was to begin the process of data collection, for without good data, trying to predict markets is like trying to figure out which number the roulette wheel is going to land on (the odds are better at roulette).

USDA Issues First 2021 Pecan Crop Estimate

October 12, 2021

The USDANASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) issued the first ‘official’ pecan crop estimate of the 2021 crop year.  Unfortunately, it was considerably lower than what most within the industry had expected. It is important to remember that the crop estimate is collected from grower surveys sent out this past August. However, if the numbers are accurate, this is how the supply situation shapes up.