USDA Issues First 2021 Pecan Crop Estimate
October 12, 2021
The USDANASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) issued the first ‘official’ pecan crop estimate of the 2021 crop year. Unfortunately, it was considerably lower than what most within the industry had expected. It is important to remember that the crop estimate is collected from grower surveys sent out this past August. However, if the numbers are accurate, this is how the supply situation shapes up.
|
|
2020 Crop Year |
2021 crop Year (est.) |
|
Carry-In |
201,470,000 |
176,083,000 |
|
US Crop |
305,360,000 |
258,000,000 |
|
Mexican Imports |
256,969,000 |
178,000,000 |
|
Total Supply |
763,799,000 |
612,083,000 |
Assumes a 50% meat to inshell conversion rate. Also, the USDA figures only take into consideration production from the five largest pecan producing states (Georgia, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma). Those five states account for approximately 90% of US Pecan Production. The American Pecan Council collects data from 15 pecan producing states. As such, the APC final 2020 crop figure is larger than the final 2020 USDA figure. To ensure an accurate comparison, the above date is based on USDA NASS data as the APC will not publish a 2021 figure until September of 2022.
Considering the fact that the South African crop was also smaller than what was originally forecast, supplies this year will be the smallest since 2015. Further, 2020 US consumption was approximately 600 million pounds (inshell basis). Based on the above data, buyers should expect to see prices respond accordingly.
