News Archive

The USDA released their November Cold Storage figures today, and while pecan consumption continued at a healthy pace through November, that is certain to change in the months ahead. With walnuts now trading at almost $4.00 per pound less than pecans, major retailers are just now beginning to adjust their walnut prices to reflect current market conditions. That will change after the first of the year when retailers can be expected to more aggressively reflect those costs in an effort to spur sales during the slowest sales period of the year. Whereas pecans have been one of the best values over the past three years, the industry can expect walnuts to take back much of what they lost to pecans in both the retail and bakery segments.

The USDA released their October Cold Storage figures today. Based on the USDA figures, the 2015 supply situation shapes up as follows:

2014 Carry-out                                                121,319,000

2015 US Crop (USDA estimate)                      272,340,000

2015 Mexican Imports (estimate)                  180,000,000

2015 Total Supply                                            573,659,000

*Note: 2014 Total Supply is estimated to have been 638 million pounds (inshell basis) and does not take into account the USDA’s double counting of inshell shipped to Mexico for processing. 2014 consumption was approximately 516.6 million pounds (inshell basis).

In September 1986, the USDA projected a US Crop of approximately 180 million pounds; considerably smaller than anyone in the industry had expected. As one might imagine, prices in the field climbed dramatically. Meat prices also soared. Fearing that there would not be enough pecans to fill anticipated demand, the US Shellers jumped into the market and purchased every pound they could get their hands on as quickly as they could.  Then, just as unexpectedly, in early December 1986, the USDA revised their numbers.  Evidently they had underestimated the crop, a crop that turned out to be 272.7 million pounds.  The resulting 33% error caused prices to tumble.

For the first time ever, the Mexican pecan crop was larger than the US crop.  Based on Mexican Government figures released on July 31, 2015, the Mexican crop was just under 271 million pounds compared to a US crop of 264 million pounds.  With Mexico continuing to plant more trees, this will probably not be the last time this happens.

While there are still two months to go in the 2014 crop year, it would appear to be a year of records for the Pecan industry; record overall consumption, record exports, record domestic consumption and record imports from Mexico.  Based on recently released import and export data, it would appear that for the first time ever, pecan consumption will top a half billion pounds (inshell basis).

2013 Carry-out                                    171,626,000

2014 US Crop                                      264,150,000

2014 Mexican Imports                       199,965,100

2014 Total Supply                               635,741,100

2014 Carry-Out (estimate)                 110,000,000

The Tri-State Growers (Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi) concluded their annual meeting this past Friday with the first crop estimate of the season.  While the crop is projected to be larger than the 2014 crop, 283 million pounds vs 265 million pounds, total supply will be lower.  Looking over the figures for each state, many within the industry believe that the 80 million pound figure for Georgia is anywhere from twenty to forty million pounds too low.  However, it is also felt that the projected crops for Oklahoma and Alabama may not materialize.  As such, the overall estimate may not be too far out of line.

The South African pecan harvest is progressing well with many expecting the crop to be as big as, or larger, than last year’s crop.  However, early data indicates that individual nut size is smaller than expected.  While the Chinese prefer to purchase oversize nuts, approximately 50 to 60 count or larger, the preponderance of the harvest is coming out as extra-large or smaller (60 plus count).  This has resulted in lower returns to the Grower than expected and may bode well for US Growers holding or producing larger nuts.

Pecan consumption continues to increase at a record pace. Based on the recent Cold Storage figures (released 3/23/15) and the Foreign Ag Statistics figures released last Thursday, pecan exports are up 38.5% with China accounting for 54% of all US pecan exports (inshell basis). Year to date, exports to China are up 71% over the same period a year ago with inshell shipments to China (China/Hong Kong/Vietnam) accounting for 83% of total US inshell exports.  Further, shipments of shelled meats to China are also up dramatically; 119%.

Increases in inshell shipments weren’t the only good news. Worldwide, consumption of shelled meats is up almost 20%.  US pecan consumption is up as well; 10% over the same period a year ago.

March 6, 2015 –

The USDA, National Ag Statistics Service released their 2014 Preliminary Crop Summary today, and as expected, lowered their projection for the 2014 pecan crop to 265,370,000 pounds (inshell basis). While many within the industry feel that the figures for Arizona, Louisiana, Oklahoma and New Mexico may still be overstated, using the new USDA figure, the 2014/2015 US supply situation shapes up as follows (inshell basis):           

                                                Component                             Quantity                                   

                                    2013 Carry-Out                                    171,626,000

                                    2014 US Crop (USDA Estimate)           265,370,000