News Archive

As expected, the USDA revised downward their estimate of the 2010 Pecan crop to 258.3 million pounds (Inshell basis) from their previous estimate of 271.3 million. Using the revised estimate, the supply situation is shaping up as follows:

The Almond Board released the November shipment figures today indicating another record month of shipments; 173.4 million pounds (kernel basis) shipped in November 2010 versus 145.5 million pounds shipped in November 2009.  For the year, 639.2 million pounds have been shipped versus 571.5 million pounds in 2009.  While it is still to early to determine the long term impact of today's figures, prices will probably firm in the short term in what is already a very tight market.  With Almonds being the cheapest nut in the overall nut basket (excluding peanuts), supplies could get even tighter in the weeks ahead as buyers look for cheaper alternatives to other higher priced nuts. 

Based on recently released October Cold Storage figures, even with a later than normal start to the 2010 harvest, the industry shipped approximately 25 million pounds (inshell basis) of product during the month.  Using revised September 2010 figures, the supply situation is shaping up as follows:

On Friday, October 22, 2010 the USDA released the September 2010 Cold Storage report indicating that almost 25 million pounds (inshell basis) of Pecans shipped during the month.  This is in line with historical disappearance for the month of September but a little lower than what many within the industry had expected based on heavier than expected demand.  Based on this figure, it would appear that consumption in 2009/2010 reached a record 457.5 million pounds (inshell basis).  Subtracting approximately 21.6 million pounds of inshell that was shipped to Mexico for shelling and resale in the US, net consumption also set a new record of approximately 435.9 million pounds. The figures are as follows:

This past Friday the USDA released the first official estimate for the 2010 Pecan crop estimating the crop to be 271.3 million pounds (inshell basis).  This figure is very close to the Louisiana Grower's estimate of 274.3 million pounds and not far from the 280.5 million pounds estimated by the National Pecan Sheller's Association.  Assuming that the estimate is correct, this is how the supply situation shapes up:

WALNUTS

The Texas Pecan Growers Association released their 2010 Pecan Crop Estimate last week projecting a crop of 292 million pounds (inshell basis).  If correct, the 2010 'off-year' crop would be the largest ever and would be larger than the 2009 'on-year' crop.  A month ago the Tri-State Growers surprised many within the industry when they projected a 2010 crop of 274 million pounds so the latest estimate was great news for an industry that had faced the possibility of having to try to market $6.00/lb Pecans. The latest figure, if correct, would not eliminate the current shortage but would go a long way to preventing higher prices later this fall and into the 2011 contracting season.  Based on current estimates, this is how the supply situation shapes up:

Yesterday the USDA released their final figures for the 2009 Pecan Crop.  Based on data submitted by both Shellers and Growers, the USDA estimated the 2009 crop to be 291,830,000 pounds (inshell basis).  This is only a slight increase over their January 2010 estimate of 290,500,000 pounds.  As such, it will probably have little impact on current prices.  Supplies are still very limited, and as such, prices remain very firm.  Based on current estimates for the 2010 US and Mexican crops, the industry appears to be about 60 million pounds short of what will be needed to handle current consumption.  With new crop Walnut and Almond prices expected to be considerably lower than that of Pecans, buyers will have plenty of substitution options in the coming year.

The Tri-State Pecan Growers, members of the Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas Growers Associations, released the first of the 2010 Pecan Crop estimates this past Friday at the conclusion of their annual meeting in Vicksburg, MS.  To everyone's surprise, the group forecast the 2010 crop to be 274.5 million pounds. While weather conditions have been very favorable, and many within the industry had projected a larger than average 'off-year' crop, if this figure turns out to be correct, it would be the largest 'off-year' crop ever.  In the face of historically high prices, severe shortages of many meat items and record consumption, this is excellant news after experiencing a smaller than expected 2009 'on-year' crop.  While not eliminating the projected 2010/2011 meat shortages, the addit

A weak Euro and the default of a major European trader have helped to weaken the Almond market.  For the first time in months, Almond shipments were down from year ago levels (from 119.4 million pounds in June 2009 to 91.9 millions pounds in June 2010).  As such, prices have also fallen.  While Standard Sheller Run 5% are now trading below $2.00/lb, growers and processers are not too eager to write long term contracts as most expect prices to move higher once the Euro stabilizes and a better assesment of the size of the 2010 crop is made.  At the moment, due to mild weather, the crop appears to be late causing the Almond Board to move back their June 30th objective estimate to July 8th.

As expected, the Chinese continue to set new purchasing records for both inshell and shelled Pecans.  Based on FAS figures released last week for the 2009 crop year to date (August 1, 2009 - January 31, 2010), the Chinese have already purchased almost 63 million pounds of Pecans (inshell basis); 10 million pounds more than last year's record purchases. With six months of purchases yet to be tabulated, there is no doubt that the Chinese will purchase close to 30% of the US crop. In addition, it would appear that some of the inshell shipped to China was shelled and then brought back to the US for resale.

PECANS

Based on the most recent Foreign Ag Statistics Service data, between August 1, 2009, and December 31, 2009, Pecan shipments to China hit a new record; up 300% over the same period a year ago.  Further, more product was shipped during that period than was shipped during the entire 2008 crop year.  Having purchased 27% of the 2008 US crop, it is highly probable that they will purchase an even larger percentage of this year's crop.  When combined with their estimated purchases from Mexico, it is not unreasonable to assume that they will have purchased approximately 25% of the total world supply of Pecans.