News Archive

Based on the October FAS export figures, overall consumption continues to be down; currently running about 11% below the same period a year ago. The report also shows that shipments to China were down.  However, because the harvest started so late, that was not much of a surprise. Based on conversations with several major exporters in Georgia, the November export numbers should show a significant increase.

For those of have been scratching their heads as to the current condition of the pecan market, you are not alone. With current market prices at or near record levels, and what appears to be a feeding frenzy going on in the orchards, both the Growers and the Shellers need to take a step back to consider where this market is headed. While much of the current buying frenzy can be directly attributed to the late harvest in the Southeastern US, the lack of adequate salable inventory in the September 30 year-end cold storage holdings and the early timing of the Chinese New Year, based on currently available data, there are still enough pecans to handle projected consumption.  Why?

On November 16 and 17, the newly established American Pecan Council met for the first time.  Hosted by the USDA at the George H. W. Bush International Airport Marriott Hotel, the meeting started with introductions, a briefing on the mechanics of the marketing order and the USDA’s role in its implementation.  After lunch, the industry representatives selected the Board’s officers electing Mike Adams as President, Bruce Caris as Vice President, G.L. Straley as Treasurer and Trent Mason as Secretary.

This morning the USDA announced the results of the recently concluded election to seat industry representatives to the newly established American Pecan Council.  Congratulations to the industry, and those elected to the Board, as the industry takes another step forward. Wasting no time, the first meetings are already being scheduled for early November. As one might imagine, the Board has its work cut out for it as they still need to appoint two additional Board members, decide on a location for their headquarters, set up a bank account, hire a full time staff, develop and disseminate assessment forms and much more. A list of the elected Board members and their alternates can be found on the 'Presentations/Articles' page of this website.  Again, congratulations.

Recently released 2015 crop year export figures contained a lot of both good, as well as disconcerting, information. On the good side, while US pecan exports were off 12.5% over the previous year, all of the reduction can be attributed to China. Exports to most of the other major pecan markets were up. Not only did the shipments of shelled pecans out-pace last year’s record, shipments of inshell to many of those same markets also increased; a possible indication that the marketing efforts of US Pecan are finally starting to pay off.  One of the brightest positives, a 28.6% increase in meat shipments to China; the fourth year in a row of increases.

For the second year in a row, Mexican pecan production outpaced the US.  Based on recently released crop figures, Mexico produced a record 2015 pecan crop; 270,535.4 million pounds, an increase of almost 400,000 lbs over the 2014 record crop. Further, based on July 31, 2016 trade figures, Mexico also set a new record for exports to the US shipping almost 207 million pounds (inshell basis) across the border.  Even when one takes into consideration the double counting of US inshell processed in Mexico, a record number of pecans came across the border.

Today’s USDA release of the final 2015 crop figures is another example of why the Pecan industry needed to pass the marketing order.  Statistics have always been a problem for the industry and today’s release is no exception.  Based on voluntary input from both Growers and Shellers, the USDA put the final 2015 crop at 254.3 million pounds. That is very interesting when one considers the following:

Today’s release of the May Cold Storage Holdings, while impressive, left more questions unanswered than answered.  Assuming that the figures are correct, and are not adjusted next month, the industry shipped more pecans in the month of May than during any other May in history; and not by just a little.  In May of 1990 the industry shipped 28 million pounds (inshell basis). According to today’s release, the industry shipped over 36 million pounds; a better than 28% increase over the previous record.  Adjusting the potential carryout numbers based on today’s release would seem to indicate that US Consumption is only down 13%.  When one takes into consideration the recently released Tri-State 2016 crop estimate, total supply could once again top 600 million pounds.

Because the pecan industry has not had the benefit of operating under a Federal marketing order, it has had to rely on best guesses, segmented industry estimates and varied opinions as to the validity of US Government data when trying to determine the actual size of each year’s crop and the resultant consumption. One of the problems associated with the collection of data under such conditions is that there is a ‘coefficient of personal prejudice’ associated with the data being presented based on who is the presenter. As more and more presenters put their personal spin on the data, the actual numbers seem to get lost and the industry begins to believe their own lies. That would certainly appear to be the case with the various crop estimates presented this past year.

While overall US pecan exports continue to be down (approximately 8%), meat shipments are up 4% over the same period a year ago.  China continues to be the primary reason for the overall decline with inshell shipments off 33%.  However, meat shipments to China continue to increase and are currently running 41.25% ahead of last year.  Based on the February export figures, it would appear that the Chinese Government’s crackdown on tax cheats has been successful as inshell shipments to China through Vietnam dropped from 32.3 million pounds to 6.2 million.  Conversely, inshell shipments to mainland China increased from 399,473 lbs to 4.5 million pounds.

The release of the February Cold Storage Holdings contained a lot of good news for the industry.  First, the January figures were revised downward approximately 8 million pounds (inshell basis).  Based on conversations with the USDA, one Sheller incorrectly submitted shelled meat data for inshell holdings and inshell data for shelled meat data for the January report and didn’t find the error until they were submitting their February data. The result of the change means that consumption in January was greater than originally thought and in line with earlier projections. Second, the increase in cold storage holdings, while greater than February 2015 levels, is in line with inventory increases in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

First, let me begin by thanking everyone who responded to my request and sent emails to the USDA regarding their decision not to publish the Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2015 Preliminary Crop Data. Your response was overwhelming!  As a result, members from various segments of the pecan industry entered into discussions with NASS (National Ag Statistics Service) concerning the decision. Because of your response, NASS agreed to publish the report IF the industry would agree to pay for it.  The cost to do so would have been $20,000.00.

Normally I would not send out two newsletters within a week of each other. However, on Tuesday I contacted the USDA National Ag Statistics Service to find out why their crop production report did not include any data on the pecan crop.  I was advised that the data would have normally been published next week in the agency’s 2015 Preliminary Crop Report.  However, due to ‘budgetary constraints,’ it was decided late last week not to publish the report, and if I wanted to comment on that decision, I should send my comments to Ms. Sue King (phone 202-690-8122) at sue.king@nass.usda.gov.

Weather continues to create problems for the pecan harvest.  Heavy persistent rains throughout the growing region, severe flooding and most recently a heavy snowfall in the southwest (some areas received as much as 18 inches) have turned what many had projected to be a promising on-year crop into an average crop at best. As a result, prices in the field continue to climb and are now nearing the record levels of 2010 and 2011.