News Archive

For over twenty years, I have advocated the need for a strong industry marketing order, if for no other reason than to provide the industry with a unified approach to marketing and for the collection and dissemination of reliable data. When the American Pecan Council was formed in 2016, one of the organizations first efforts was to begin the process of data collection, for without good data, trying to predict markets is like trying to figure out which number the roulette wheel is going to land on (the odds are better at roulette).

The USDANASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) issued the first ‘official’ pecan crop estimate of the 2021 crop year.  Unfortunately, it was considerably lower than what most within the industry had expected. It is important to remember that the crop estimate is collected from grower surveys sent out this past August. However, if the numbers are accurate, this is how the supply situation shapes up. 

Last week, the National Pecan Sheller's Association concluded their first 'in person' meeting in almost 18-months with their estimate of the 2021 crop.  Based on a survey of their memebership, as well as those in attendance, they are predicting a 2021 US crop of 322,925,000 inshell pounds, slightly higher than the 297 million pound estimate from the Texas Pecan Growers meeting.  A downloadable PDF copy of my presentation can be found under the 'Presentations' tab of this web site.  As stated on that page, two numbers have changed since the presentation was made.  The first is the revised US Crop estimate.  The second, COMNUEZ lowered their estimate of the Mexican crop to 254 million pounds.

On July 20^th, the Texas Pecan Growers Association closed their annual meeting with the first crop estimate of the 2021 pecan crop.  Based on their membership, they estimate the crop to be 297 million pounds (inshell basis), down 1.8% from last year.  Using NASS cold storage data, FAS and Market News import figures, as well as APC inventory figures, the extrapolated supply situation shapes up as follows:

“To be, or not to be…” is one of the most well-know and quoted phrases in history.  The opening lines of Prince Hamlet’s soliloquy from Scene 1, Act 3 (the ‘nunnery scene’), where Hamlet contemplates death and suicide, could be used as a warning to the US Pecan Growers who, for the next few weeks, will decide whether the industry’s Federal Marketing Order, and with it the American Pecan Council (APC), will ‘die’ or continue to serve an industry that desperately needs what it can provide.  If the growers choose the former, thereby allowing the organization to die, they will in effect be committing suicide.  Let me explain.

On May 5, 2021, the USDA released their final estimate of the 2020 pecan crop.  Based on their data, the 2020 crop came in at 305.36 million pounds (inshell basis). Using NASS cold storage data, as well as APC inventory figures, the extrapolated supply situation shapes up as follows:

Last week’s release of the USDA Cold Storage holdings contained nothing but good news.  Not only were the February holdings lower than the previous year, but it was also the first time in fifteen months that the figures were lower than the previous years’ holdings.  Based on the February APC figures, committed inventory was at 78.35% of USDA cold storage figures and 87.72% of inventory held by US Handlers, the second highest percentage in over a year.  Further, the industry had the fewest days of available supply in over nine years (see attached PDF Graph in Market Conditions drop down of the Pecan Crop Statistics page).

While it is still too early to say that the worst is behind us, recently available data would seem to indicate that the industry may have finally turned the corner.  Based on January USDA FAS data, as well as USDA NASS Cold Storage figures, it would appear that for the 2020 crop year, overall consumption is up approximately 6.1%.  That figure is primarily driven by a 9.3% increase in domestic sales.  When one considers that the food service segment of the industry has been almost totally devastated by the COVID pandemic, to see increases in both the domestic and export markets is very encouraging.  If current Government estimates are correct as to when the US will reach ‘herd mentality,’  a resurgent food service segment could help to bolster consumption gains in the third and fourth qu

On January 21, 2021, the USDA released their 2020 preliminary crop production forecast projecting a final crop of 302.35 million pounds (inshell basis).  This will be the last USDA estimate until they publish their final crop figures in June. Based on currently available information, the supply situation shapes up as follows: